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奥丽花,爸爸去哪儿韩版,朱侨侨
来源: www.sxz58.com 发布时间:2019-3-25
奥丽花,爸爸去哪儿韩版,朱侨侨

In a lab at Harvard, researchers are trying to replicate the conditions of the stratosphere–the part of the atmosphere that stretches roughly six to 31 miles above the surface of the planet–in test tubes. Their goal: to better understand what might happen if humanity eventually decides to embark on a radical, controversial plan to temporarily cool the planet by spraying clouds of particles into the sky.

在哈佛大学的一个实验室里,研究人员试图在试管中复制平流层的条件--大气层的一部分,在地球表面上延伸约6至31英里。他们的目标是:更好地理解如果人类最终决定开始一项激进的、有争议的计划——通过向天空喷出粒子云来暂时冷却地球——什么将会发生。

If it ever happens, the process might involve sending planes into the sky to release particles of a compound like sulfur dioxide that can reflect some sunlight back into space and could temporarily cool the planet. It's not a fix for climate change, and it's a form of geoengineering so extreme that it carries risks that may not be fully predictable. But as climate change progresses, it's possible that the global community may someday decide it has to try it.

如果真的发生了这种情况,这个过程可能包括向空中发射飞机,使其释放二氧化硫等化合物的粒子,这种化合物能将一些阳光反射回太空,并能暂时让地球降温。它不是气候变化的解决措施,而是一种极端的地球工程方案,它带来的风险可能无法完全预测。但随着气候变化的恶化,地球委员会有可能在某一天决定必须尝试一下这个方案。

"Our team here is doing the research because we believe there's still a lot of uncertainties around solar geoengineering, and we think there's a chance for potential benefits around the world," says Elizabeth Burns, managing director for Harvard's Solar Geoengineering Research Program. "But we also think there's the chance for very real risks."

哈佛大学太阳能地球工程研究项目总经理伊丽莎白·伯恩斯说:"我们的团队正在进行这项研究,因为我们相信太阳能工程仍然存在很多不确定性,我们认为全世界都有可能从中受益。"。 "但我们也认为这存在现实的风险。"

In one new study in Nature Climate Change, researchers from Harvard, MIT, and Princeton used a state-of-the-art, detailed computer model to look at what might happen if solar geoengineering was used to cut global temperature increases in half. In the scenario, they found that reducing warming would also offset the increasing intensity of hurricanes and would help moderate extreme rain and a lack of water for farming (in the model, rain decreased, but so did evaporation). Less than 0.5% of the world might see increases in impacts from climate change. That's in contrast to some previous studies that found that this type of geoengineering might benefit some parts of the world while large other areas were harmed. Still, the study is limited, and doesn't look at all of the potential effects.

在《自然气候变化》杂志的一项新研究中,来自哈佛大学、麻省理工学院和普林斯顿大学的研究人员使用了一种最先进的、详细的计算机模型,来观察如果利用太阳能工程将全球气温上升减半会发生什么。 在这种情况下,他们发现,减缓气候变暖也会缓解飓风强度,并有助于缓和极端降雨和农业用水的缺乏(在模型中,降雨减少了,但蒸发也减少了)。 世界上受气候变化影响的地方不到0.5%。这与之前的一些研究相反,那些研究发现,这种类型的工程可能使世界上的一些地区受益,而其他大部分地区则受到损害。 尽管如此,这项研究是有限的,并没有看到所有的潜在影响。

The concept of spraying chemicals into the sky to cool the Earth is not new. It's the same process that happens naturally when volcanoes erupt. In 1991, when Mount Pinatubo erupted and spewed millions of tons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, it cooled the planet by half a degree Celsius for more than a year. But it's only more recently that researchers have started seriously studying what might happen if humans deliberately do something similar. At this point, it's still a very small area of study, with relatively little funding, and many unknowns.

向天空喷洒化学物质以冷却地球的想法并不新鲜。这和火山爆发时自然发生的过程是一样的。1991年,皮纳图博火山爆发,向大气中喷射了数百万吨二氧化硫,使地球降温0.5摄氏度,持续了一年多。但直到最近,研究人员才开始认真研究如果人类故意做类似的事情会发生什么。在这一点上,这仍然是一个非常小的研究领域,资金相对较少并且存在许多未知数。

Burns emphasizes, repeatedly, that the world's priority needs to be reducing emissions to zero. "Solar geoengineering cannot be a substitute for reducing emissions, because it does not address the root cause of climate change," she says. "So if we are to achieve a stable climate, we really do need to reduce emissions to zero, and then also eventually remove the carbon dioxide that's in the atmosphere and store it underground or elsewhere. Those actions actually address the root cause. Solar geoengineering does not."

伯恩斯一再强调,世界的首要任务是实现零排放。 "太阳能工程不能替代减排,因为它不能解决气候变化的根本原因,"她说。 "因此,如果我们要实现一个稳定的气候,我们确实需要将排放量减少到零,然后最终消除大气中的二氧化碳,并将其储存在地下或其他地方。这些行动实际上解决了问题的根本。太阳能地球工程则不然。"

"It would only potentially be used temporarily while we rapidly reduce our emissions to the atmosphere and figure out cheap ways to separate carbon dioxide out," says Alan Robock, an environmental sciences professor at Princeton. "So nobody talks about doing it instead of mitigation. It would be on top of our best efforts at mitigation." Robock has documented 27 potential risks of the idea, from the possibility of ozone depletion to potential droughts and a reduction in solar energy generation. The paper lists only six potential benefits, but one is significant: a reduction in surface air temperatures could "reduce or reverse negative impacts of global warming, including floods, droughts, stronger storms, sea ice melting, and sea level rise."

普林斯顿大学环境科学教授艾伦·罗博克(Alan Robock)表示:“在我们迅速减少对大气的排放,并找到廉价的方法将二氧化碳分离出去的时候,它只可能被暂时使用。”“因此,没有人谈论减排而不是减排。这将是我们在减缓气候变化方面最大的努力。罗伯克记录了这个想法的27个潜在风险,从臭氧损耗的可能性到潜在的干旱和太阳能发电的减少。这篇论文只列出了六个潜在的好处,但其中一个很重要:地表空气温度的降低可以"减少或扭转全球变暖的负面影响,包括洪水、干旱、强风暴、海冰融化和海平面上升。"

At Harvard, the researchers are studying the possibility of using calcium carbonate (the same particle found in chalk or toothpaste) rather than sulfur dioxide; while sulfur dioxide can speed up the destruction of the ozone layer, calcium carbonate could potentially help it and avoid some other risks. While their work is focused in the lab and computer modeling now, the team may be the first to do a real-world experiment, which would involve launching a balloon into the stratosphere, releasing a small amount of calcium carbonate, and then measure how the light scatters and changes in atmospheric chemistry. The team was interested in conducting the experiment this year, but won't move forward without the recommendation of an external, independent advisory committee that it's creating. "To us, the governance of this is equally as important as the scientific goals for the experiment," says Burns.

哈佛大学的研究者们正在研究使用碳酸钙的可能性(就是粉笔和牙膏的颗粒成分)而不是二氧化硫,因为SO2会加速破坏臭氧层。而碳酸钙能够防止这种情况同时避免一些其他的风险。而他们的工作是集中在实验室和计算机建模,团队可能首先做一个真实的实验,这将涉及向平流层发射一个气球,释放出少量的碳酸钙,然后测量光散射和大气化学的变化。该团队对今年进行这项实验很感兴趣,但如果没有它正在创建的一个外部独立咨询委员会的建议,他们不会推进这项实验。伯恩斯说:“对我们来说,对这一问题的管理与实验的科学目标同样重要。”

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